Originally Posted on 4/08/2018 @ 3:48 pm
Last Edited on 4/08/2018 @ 8:30 pm
by Steven Warrenfeltz
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Before we get to this Review & Outlook, below are some of the Best Bullion Market-Related News articles that were taken from this guide's home page, over the last week.
All the charts on this blog are Daily Charts unless noted otherwise.
Last week, I wrote the following outlook for the U.S. Dollar and posted the chart below.
In the dollar's outlook chart below, it has created a 'Falling Expanding Wedge.'
The pattern is very broad, and even though the dollar looks like it may break it in a day or two, it could easily trade inside the wedge for a week or more.
The biggest reason why I state this has to deal with all the wavering news reports about a trade war.
If a 'Trade War' does materialize between the U.S. and China, it will hurt the dollar, but the news from last week was optimistic, stating that negotiation were set to begin, which is why the dollar rose in price.
Currently, most of the strength in the dollar hangs in the fate of these negotiations and what we hear in the news about them.
So, we're kind of in 'limbo' right now as to how the dollar will move, however, when the dollar does confirm the positive pattern in the outlook chart below, it will most likely find it very hard to trade above the $90.40 resistance zone.
The 'Descending Channel' was discussed in outlook from three weeks ago here, so until the dollar can muster the strength to break above it, it will pave the way to the dollar's overall direction.
Lastly, the $91.00 price level outlined in the chart below was discussed in detail in the following blog post: The Dollar Breaks a Critical Support Level.
As you can see in the chart below, the U.S. Dollar confirmed the positive 'Falling Expanding Wedge' pattern.
As stated in last week's outlook above, the Dollar's movement was in 'limbo' simply because nobody knew what was going to happen with our trade relations, and nothing's really changed.
But the dollar did confirm the pattern and as also stated last week, it has had a hard time trading above the $90.40 price level.
It was able to close above it on Thursday of last week, but it was unable to stay above that level.
In the U.S. Dollar's outlook chart below, it has formed a negative 'Rising Wedge' pattern.
The pattern isn't expected to hold up for too long for two reasons.
First, the dollar is trading near the end of the 'Rising Wedge' pattern, and two, as we've seen for the last several weeks, the dollar can't seem to trade above the $90.40 price level for more than one day.
So, in the near future, we should have seen the dollar confirm the negative pattern below and move lower in price.
U.S. Dollar's Resistance Levels
U.S. Dollar's Support Levels
Last week, the chart and commentary below was posted for silver's outlook.
In the outlook chart below, silver has formed a negative 'Rising Expanding Wedge.'
The wedge pattern is very broad, and the price of silver could easily confirm it in a day or two.
But, uncertainty is reigning in this market and 'uncertainty' is gold and silver's best friend.
So unless good news comes out of the trade negotiations, we may see silver rise inside this broad negative wedge before it falls below the bottom trend-line of the 'Rising Expanding Wedge' confirming it.
By comparing the outlook chart above and the review chart below, you can see that although silver's price had a lot of movement, it basically moved sideways.
In the middle of last week, silver's price briefly fell below the bottom trend-line of the wedge, but because it did not close a trading day below it, I've decided not to call it confirmed.
Furthermore, one thing everyone who follows silver needs to keep in mind is that silver is an industrial metal in addition to a safe haven metal and because of this reason, it will trade much more violently than gold.
In the chart below, you can see silver now has two patterns that have been identified in its chart.
The larger of the two patterns is a positive 'Falling Wedge' pattern and the other is the same negative 'Rising Expanding Wedge' pattern in the chart above.
Both patterns are expected to be confirmed sometime in the near future, the question is; which one will be first?
If you don't already do this, I would encourage you to start following my chart set-ups on TradingView.com, their charts are free to use.
By doing this you too can see which pattern will be confirmed first; furthermore, if you are looking to buy silver, it will help you better judge when to make your investment.
For instance; if the Rising Expanding Wedge is confirmed first, then the time to buy the dip is very soon.
But, on the other hand, if silver confirms the 'Falling Wedge' first, then you know to hold off your purchase because a dip in the price of silver is most likely going to happen shortly thereafter.
Note: Tradingview.com is an affiliate of this guide, but I use the free charts to construct each blog post, you only pay when you wish to receive more of their services.
Silver's Resistance Levels
Silver's Support Levels
Below, is what was written last week in the gold outlook and its corresponding gold chart is below it.
In the outlook chart below, gold has formed a negative 'Rising Expanding Wedge' pattern.
Like silver, the price of gold could easily break below the bottom trend-line of the wedge this week.
But, because of the uncertainty in the markets about the trade talks, gold could rise in price inside the wedge.
Furthermore, at the end of this week (April 6th) the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report will be released, which if it is good, will most likely help gold and silver move higher because it will be a sign that more rate hikes could be in the future.
Because of these factors, we could see gold climb in price before it confirms the 'Rising Expanding Wedge' by falling below its lower trend-line.
In gold's review chart below, you can see that gold chose to confirm the negative 'Rising Expanding Wedge' pattern earlier than what was hypothesized in last week's outlook above.
In the outlook chart below, gold has formed a positive 'Falling Expanding Wedge' pattern.
But, this week, I've added another 'Outlook Chart,' below this one, to show you a large positive pattern that has been identified in gold's chart.
Since the beginning of the year gold's been moving sideways, consolidating its price and in doing so it has created a large 'Bull Flag.'
As to when this very positive pattern will be confirmed is anyone's guess, but it may happen sometime shortly after the 'Falling Expanding Wedge' is confirmed.
However, as you can see in the chart above, the 'Falling Expanding Wedge is broad, so gold could easily trade inside it for a while before it confirms it by breaking to the upside.
In addition, the fact that the 'Bull Flag' has been identified, is a very good sign for gold.
And although it doesn't give us any idea as to how soon it will be confirmed, it does give us a very good idea as to where it is going.
Time will tell how and when these patterns are confirmed in the future.
Gold's Resistance Levels
Gold's Support Levels
Thank You for Your Time.
Have a Great Week and God Bless,
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