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Silver and Gold
are
'Searching for a Bottom'

 Review and Outlook for the U.S. Dollar, Silver, and Gold



Originally Posted on 7/23/2018 @ 4:49 pm EDT

by Steven Warrenfeltz



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There are many fundamental and technical negatives that are hurting the precious metals at this time.

Some of these negative factors include; the Federal Reserve, silver and gold falling below their long-term rising trend-lines, and a strong dollar.

So, the precious metals are searching for a bottom, but at this time its unknown as to whether or not they have found one yet.






Review & Outlook
Layout


The order of the asset analysis below:

  • U.S. Dollar
  • Silver
  • Gold

Each asset below has three sections.

  1. In the 'review' section, a copy of the previous outlook for an asset is posted.
  2. Next, you'll find a 'review - continued' section where there is a brief review of how accurate the previous outlook was.
  3. Finally, you will find an 'outlook for the week ahead' for each of the assets below.




All the charts on this blog are Daily Charts unless noted otherwise.






US DOLLAR


In Review

Last week, the outlook below was posted for the U.S. Dollar.

In the outlook chart below, the U.S. Dollar looks to be having a hard time staying above the $95.00 resistance/support level.

The dollar's move up has been greatly helped by the Federal Reserve hawkish stance and rate hikes along with the help of the roaring economy and jobs numbers.

However, inflation is slowly ticking higher and higher and sooner or later it will start to eat away at the dollar's strength.

For the dollar's outlook, the $95.00 price level looks to be it's biggest hurdle, if it doesn't break it, we will see the negative 'Rising Expanding Wedge' pattern confirmed in the next week or two.


u.s. dollar price chart

U.S. Dollar - In Review - continued

This week, I created one chart (below) for the U.S. Dollar's review and outlook.

In review of last week's chart above, by looking at the chart below, we can see that the dollar continues to have a problem staying above the $95.00 price level.

The price level is turning out to be more of a resistance level than a support level for the dollar.

However, even though the $95.00 price level has proved to keep the U.S. dollar down, it still hasn't broken the negative 'Rising Expanding Wedge' pattern.


U.S. Dollar - Outlook

For the U.S. Dollar's outlook, more of the same is expected, basically an overall sideways move with violent moves to the up and downside.

Over the last week, traders seemed to be at a tug-o-war.

On one side is the Federal Reserve stating that they expect to continue to raise interest rates and on the other side is the President, stating that he's not happy with the interest rate hikes.

Ultimately, the market will decide how the dollar moves, and now it seems indecisive or sideways.

However, sooner or later we should expect to see the 'Rising Expanding Wedge' to be confirmed to the downside.


u.s. dollar price chart

Charts provided courtesy of this Guide's Affiliate - TradingView.com




U.S. Dollar's Price Resistance and Support Levels


U.S. Dollar's Resistance Levels

$96.00

$95.00

U.S. Dollar's Support Levels

$93.00

$92.00

$91.00








SILVER

In Review

Last week's outlook for silver had two charts with commentary, and you'll find them below. 


Silver - Outlook

In the first outlook chart below, you can see that silver's Long-Term Rising Trend-line was over 2 years old, and there aren't any more to find.

In all honesty, you could draw a trend-line off the December 2015 low to the fat-finger low made in July of 2016 (seen in the middle of the chart below), but I've tried, the line is practically horizontal and isn't worthy of being called a rising trend-line.

In addition, now that silver broke below this level, the 'Long-Term Rising Trend-line' goes from a strong support level to a strong resistance level, you will see more evidence of this resistance in the second outlook chart, below.

Furthermore, now that we can't draw anymore rising trend-lines, we only find support in horizontal lines, from previous trading levels.

Support for silver now sits in the area between $15.60 to $15.20, as seen in the chart below.

Note: the black dotted line, at the top left of the chart, that isn't labeled, was silver's Long-Term Falling Trendline, which it broke in April of 2015.


Silver Outlook Chart #1


silver price chart

Silver - Outlook - continued

In the chart below, you can see what I was talking about, above, concerning the 'Long-Term Rising Trend-line' turning into a strong resistance level for silver.

Furthermore, since silver broke below the rising trend-line it hasn't been able to break above it, and even though it is now trading inside a positive 'Falling Wedge' pattern, it's doubtful that it will break above its new resistance level.

So silver's outlook is for it to break and confirm the 'Falling Wedge' to the upside, this week or next, but it doesn't seem to have the strength to break its new 'Resistance Trend-line,' in that move up.


Silver Outlook Chart #2


silver price chart

Silver - In Review - continued


In silver's review chart below, you can see that the price did something that I've rarely seen, it fell through an already steep 'Falling Wedge' pattern, denying its expected positive outcome.

In addition, silver fell through the $15.20 price level, its fall stopped at the $15.15 price level, making it a new support level for silver.


Silver Price Chart

Silver - Outlook


In Silver's outlook chart below, I've adjusted the bottom trend-line of the steep 'Falling Wedge.'

I kept the pattern in the chart because as long as it can be drawn, it is relevant.

However, right now, silver continually seems to be finding new lows and although some kind of bounce is expected in its price, it is unknown whether or not it will have legs.  Time will tell.


silver price chart

Charts provided courtesy of this Guide's Affiliate - TradingView.com





Silver's Price Resistance &
Support Levels


Silver's Resistance Levels

$16.00

$15.80


Silver's Support Levels

$15.60

$15.15





bullionguide




GOLD

In Review

Last week, the following chart and commentary was posted for gold's outlook.

In gold's outlook chart below, you can see that it is practically trading along the rising trend-line and will undoubtedly be 'walking it' in the near future.

The fact that gold is trading inside a huge positive Falling Expanding Wedge pattern won't keep it from falling below the trend-line, the only thing that can keep it from falling under the rising trend-line is trader sentiment, and right now it's not good for gold.

For the week to come, I'm expecting gold to walk the tightrope, it may stay above it or it may not.

In addition, if the price of gold falls below the 'Long-Term Rising Trend-line' then we'll most likely see the price of gold move lower, and the positive wedge may become irrelevant.  Time will tell


Gold Price Chart

Gold - In Review - continued

By viewing Gold's review chart below, we can see that it fell through its 'Long-term Rising Trend-line,' just like silver did the week before.

In addition, gold also fell below the 'Falling Expanding Wedge,' but, it didn't deny the positive pattern by closing a 'day of trading' below the pattern's bottom trend-line.

The 'Falling Expanding Wedge' pattern has been redrawn in gold's outlook chart below, in addition, gold has also created a new positive pattern in its outlook chart.


Gold Price Chart

Gold - Outlook

In gold's outlook chart below, you can see what I mentioned in the review above, that gold now has two positive patterns in its price chart.

Obviously, gold is expected to break above the narrow 'Falling Wedge' before it would break the positive 'Falling Expanding Wedge.'

For the gold's outlook, it is expected to break the 'Falling Wedge' sometime in the next week or so.

But, even if gold breaks the 'Falling Wedge,' by the looks of things, the precious metal will continue to fall in search of a bottom.


Gold Price Chart

Charts provided courtesy of this Guide's Affiliate - TradingView.com





Gold's Price Resistance and
Support Levels


Gold's Resistance Levels

$1280.00

$1240.00


Gold's Support Levels

$1225.00

$1195.00







Thank You for Your Time.

Have a Great Week and God Bless,

Steve





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