The Dollar is Trading Inside New Negative Patterns

 Review and Outlook for the U.S. Dollar, Silver, and Gold

Originally Posted on 3/12/2018 @ 9:45 am

Re-posted on 3/13/2018 @ 12:04 pm

by Steven Warrenfeltz

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the dollar is trading inside a new negative pattern

Those who follow this blog know that for the last few months I've been posting technical analysis of the U.S. Dollar, Gold, and Silver charts every two weeks, and to be upfront, I was starting to enjoy being on that schedule.

But because all the chart patterns in last week's blog post, seen here, have been confirmed and new patterns have formed, I knew that a new post needed to be published.

As you'll see in the charts below, Gold and Silver have formed new positive chart patterns and the U.S. Dollar's outlook chart reveals that its future continues to not look so good.

Review & Outlook

Each asset below has three sections.

  1. In the 'review' section, a copy of the previous outlook for that asset is posted.
  2. Next, you'll find a 'review - continued' section where there is a brief review of how accurate the previous outlook was.
  3. Finally, you will find an 'outlook for the week ahead' for each of the assets below.

All the charts on this blog are Daily Charts unless noted otherwise.


In Review

Last week, I wrote the following outlook for the U.S. Dollar and posted the chart below.

In the outlook chart below, I have identified two of the most prominent negative signs a.k.a wedge patterns in the U.S. Dollar's chart.

In all honesty, I found two other negative patterns in the U.S. Dollar's chart, but one was simply like adding gas to a fire in regards to the rising wedges and the other is only implied, we'll have to see how the dollar's price moves in the days and weeks to come, before I can identify that pattern in the charts.

Plus, had I added that other wedge it would have made the chart below cluttered and hard to read, if it isn't already.

Anyways, getting back to the outlook for the U.S. Dollar, two negative 'Wedges' have been identified in the chart.

Currently, the price of the dollar is literally sitting on the bottom trend-line of both wedges, which means they could be confirmed in the next day or two.

However, the 'Rising Wedge' in 'black letters' is the dominate wedge, so the price of the U.S. Dollar could bounce back up and trade inside it for a few days before the weight of the $91.00 resistance level helps to push the dollar below the trend-lines of the wedges, confirming them.

u.s. dollar price chart

In Review continued

Last week, the price of the U.S. Dollar never came close to the $91.00 resistance level, but it was hard to predict which way it was going to move inside the patterns.

As you can see in the U.S. Dollar's review chart below, the Dollar confirmed both of the negative wedges shortly after the chart above was posted.

u.s. dollar price chart

U.S. Dollar - Outlook

The title graphic of this blog post gave away what the new negative patterns are in the U.S. Dollar's Outlook.

Its rarely seen when an asset clears itself of two negative patterns only to find itself in two more, and one of them being a very possible long-term pattern.

The more negative of the two patterns is the 'Descending Channel.'  

The identification of a descending channel in any chart isn't good, and the one in the chart below is broad; meaning the dollar could be trading inside it for a while.

The other negative pattern is a 'Rising Wedge,' it's a short-term pattern.

As to when the wedge will be broken is up for grabs, mostly because the market is waiting to see what the Federal Reserve does on March 21st.

The economy is roaring, so I'm expecting a rate hike of 0.25% or 25 basis points, but I doubt it will help the dollar much.

I expect to see the dollar trade up inside the 'Rising Wedge' until the announcement of the rate hike, then after it, the U.S. Dollar will most likely fall below the wedge, confirming it.

That's my expectation, but time will tell and if I'm right, either way, I'll let you know if I am or not.

u.s. dollar price chart

Charts provided courtesy of this Guide's Affiliate -

U.S. Dollar's Price Resistance and Support Levels

U.S. Dollar's Resistance Levels



U.S. Dollar's Support Levels





In Review

Last week, the following commentary and the chart below it was posted for silver's outlook.

In silver's outlook chart below, a positive 'Falling Expanding Wedge' has formed.

Silver's candlestick chart and its RSI (lower indicator) are showing that silver's price is possibly going to continue to move up.

However, its MACD is giving no indication as to which way it will move and the price of silver has been very volatile, so we could see the price move in either direction in the days and weeks to come before it confirms the pattern.

One thing to know is that the Federal Reserve won't be making a decision on interest rates until March 21st, so until then, we can pretty much expect to see silver move up or down with a lot of volatility.

silver price chart

In Review - continued

In the review chart below, you can see that the price of silver  confirmed the 'Falling Expanding Wedge Pattern' with volatile price movements.

The price of silver didn't do much the day after the chart above was posted in the last blog post, but then on Tuesday (3/06), the dollar spiked above the positive wedge pattern.

Silver Price Chart

Silver - Outlook

In the chart below, silver has formed a 'Falling Wedge' pattern.

It's a positive pattern and like the pattern from last week, the price of silver could confirm the pattern fairly quickly, this is stated mostly because silver's MACD and RSI (lower indicators) are both indicating that more upward movement could be in its near future.

But price changes can happen on a dime, plus because of the expected FOMC rate hike is in the cards, some selling pressure could be in silver's short-term future.

Time will tell.

silver price chart

Charts provided courtesy of this Guide's Affiliate -

Silver's Price Resistance &
Support Levels

Silver's Resistance Levels



Silver's Support Levels




In Review

Below, is what was written in last week's the gold outlook and its corresponding gold chart is below it.

In gold's outlook chart below, you can see that like silver, gold has formed a 'Falling Expanding Wedge.'

The wedge is a positive pattern, and like silver's pattern, gold's price is currently trading near the upper trend-line of the wedge.

In addition, gold's MACD and RSI are giving a slight indication that more of a rebound could be in its near future.

In regards to the news, its hard to say which way gold will move, however the biggest thing to remember about gold is; "Uncertainty is its Best Friend."

Time will tell how soon gold will confirm its positive 'Rising Expanding Wedge.'

Gold Price Chart

In Review - continued

Like silver, gold confirmed its 'Falling Expanding Wedge' pattern early last week.

Gold Price Chart

Gold - Outlook

In the outlook chart below, gold has formed a positive 'Falling Wedge' pattern.

Like last week, gold's MACD and RSI continue to show that the price may continue to slowly climb in price.

But, gold is trading in the middle of this wedge and with the FOMC meeting getting closer, gold's movement may become more subdued until after they've announced their decision on rate hikes.

As stated, the pattern is a positive sign for gold, but because of trader uncertainty due to the Fed's up-and-coming decision, we may see more of sideways movement in gold before it confirms the pattern.

Gold Price Chart

Charts provided courtesy of this Guide's Affiliate -

Gold's Price Resistance and
Support Levels

Gold's Resistance Levels



Gold's Support Levels



Thank You for Your Time.

Have a Great Week and God Bless,


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