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The Dollar is Trading
in a Negative Pattern
Despite its Positive News
UPDATE

 Review and Outlook for the U.S. Dollar, Silver, and Gold


Originally Posted on 11/07/2017 @ 11:43 am

by Steven Warrenfeltz


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Hello,

Thank you for visiting the Free-Bullion-Investment-Guide's latest blog post, before we get to the precious metals review and outlook, below are some of last week's Best Bullion Market-Related News articles that were taken from this guide's home page.


best news
The World Is Running Out of Gold, Should You Invest? - Fortune


FAKE BULLION ALERT: Fake Gold Bar Did Not Come From RCM - Kitco


INFOGRAPHIC: All of the World’s Money and Markets in One Visualization - Visual Capitalist


Austerity Should Be Renamed Sustainable Spending - Advancing Times


Central-Bank Demand for Gold Bars 'Set to Grow' in 2018 - Bullion Vault


AUDIO : INTEREST RATES AT 5,000 YEAR LOW - McAlvany Weekly Commentary


Best of the Week for Gold NanoParticle Cancer Research


New clinical trial offers hope to patients with glioblastoma - WGNTV (Chicago, IL)


Magnetic gold is evidence of relativity, study finds - Cosmos Magazine






The Dollar is Trading in a Negative Pattern - update




Besides the fact that 2-weeks have passed, not much has changed in the charts for the U.S. Dollar, Silver, and Gold since my last blog post.

In addition, the narrative for the first post under the same name hasn't changed either, the U.S. dollar is just getting more good press than it was two weeks ago.

Besides the up-and-coming tax cuts that were discussed in the original blog post, GDP is up to 3%, the Non-Farm Payroll report was very positive, and the unemployment rate is down to 4.1%.

It kind of sounds like I'm leading you up to something, doesn't it?  I'm not trying too, except for the fact that the U.S. Dollar is still trading in a negative pattern and gold and silver are trading in positive patterns.

In the original blog post seen here, I discussed the fact that tax cuts without spending cuts lead to a lower dollar and higher gold, but they haven't been passed yet and nobody knows what will be in the final deal, so that argument is up in the air at the moment.

As for the rest of the information, it all sounds good to me, the only way to look at things negatively, is to look at the business cycle, which is completely out of whack, plus the stock markets hasn't had a decent pullback in over a year and volatility is at multiyear lows.


Average Business Cycle Chart


sir john templeton

In addition, Margin debt is at all times highs and everyone thinks this is the 'New Norm.'


What could go wrong?



NYSE Margin Debt Chart
and the S&P 500


Fact is the only reason why it's different this time is due to all the central bank manipulation of the markets.

Right now, we don't know what will cause the next downturn in the markets, it could be interest rates, it could be inflation or some international event that was never on anyone's radar.

The market never creates a 'New Norm,' the central banks can't manipulate the Free Market forever without burning everyone attached to it sooner or later, so you should "Cover Your Assets."

Popular Family Card Game

If your assets are covered, that's great, you have the freedom to play the market however you choose.

But, if they're not, its always best to have a little insurance (a.k.a. Precious Metals) in your portfolio so you don't end up a fool.

At least 10% of this insurance is recommended for everyone's portfolio, if you choose to have more or less, that's your prerogative, just don't tell me I didn't warn you.

As for the charts, below you'll find updated charts for the U.S. Dollar, Gold, and Silver.








Review & Outlook
Commentary Layout

Each asset below has three sections.

1)  In the 'review' section, a copy of the previous outlook for that asset is posted.

2) Next, you'll find a 'review - continued' section where there is a brief review of how accurate the previous outlook was.

3) Finally, you will find an 'outlook for the week ahead' for each of the assets below.





All the charts on this blog are Daily Charts unless noted otherwise.






US DOLLAR

In Review

Two weeks ago, I wrote the following about the U.S. Dollar and posted the chart below.

In the chart below, you can see that the negative 'Rising Expanding Wedge' pattern is very broad, and the dollar's been trading inside of it since early September.

It clearly could continue to move inside the pattern and that is expected as it continues to move up on the news of how the tax cuts will help the economy.

It won't be until the details of the 2018 budget deal are passed into law to know how the specifics in the bill will affect the Dollar.

But, as long as the negative pattern is looming over the dollar, its future does not look as bright as some may think.


US Dollar Price Chart

In Review - continued

As you can see in the chart below, what was posted two weeks ago, is mostly what happened.

The dollar continued to move up in the wedge pattern, the price not only moved up on the continued reports of how the tax cuts will help the economy, it was also fueled by the positive non-farm payroll numbers and a good GDP report.

However, the negative pattern continues to linger over the dollar's price.


U.S. Dollar - This Week's Outlook

As for the week to come, if the U.S. Dollar continues to rise, it will start to hit resistance at the $95.50 level.

Therefore, although I have little doubt that the U.S. Dollar will continue to trade inside the 'Rising Expanding Wedge' some pullback may happen this week.

In addition, the Dollar's MACD and RSI are starting to move a little higher in the overbought territory, so if the dollar hits the $95.50 level this week, the dollar will consolidate at this level, and we may see a pullback.


US Dollar Price Chart

Charts provided courtesy of this Guide's Affiliate - TradingView.com





U.S. Dollar's Price Resistance and Support Levels


U.S. Dollar's Resistance Levels

$96.50

$95.50


U.S. Dollar's Support Levels

$94.00

$93.00









SILVER

In Review

Below is silver's commentary and chart outlook from 2 weeks ago.

For the week to come, silver's price chart has formed a positive pattern known as a 'Falling Wedge'.

However, silver's MACD and RSI are giving very little indication as to which way the precious metal will move.

Furthermore, silver's 'Falling Wedge' is broad, so it may (continue to) trade inside it before it confirms the positive pattern. Time will tell.


Silver Price Chart

In Review - continued

The outlook from two weeks ago so far looks to be holding up, if you look at the chart below, silver is still trading inside the 'broad' Falling Wedge, plus over the last two weeks, it hasn't given much of an indication as to which way its price is going to move.


Silver - This Week's Outlook

For the week ahead, silver continues to show very little as to which way it's going to move.

Although it did come close to breaking the upper falling trend-line of the wedge last week, the price did not close the day out above it.

In addition, Silver's MACD and RSI are both giving little indication as to which way the price may move, so we may continue to see the price move sideways, and perhaps that sideways movement may ultimately break the wedge.  Time will tell.


Silver Price Chart

Charts provided courtesy of this Guide's Affiliate - TradingView.com





Silver's Price Resistance &
Support Levels


Silver's Resistance Levels

$17.75

$17.50


Silver's Support Levels

$16.80

$16.50









GOLD

In Review

Below is the gold outlook from two weeks ago.

For the week to come, like silver, gold has formed a positive 'Falling Wedge' pattern.

Although the pattern is positive, the pattern is broad so the price of gold has room to trade inside it.

Plus, the MACD and RSI are giving very little indication as to which way it will move, so this week although gold's trading in a positive pattern, we could literally see it move in either way. Time will tell.


Gold Price Chart

In Review - continued

Over the last two weeks, gold moved down, but it is still trading inside the positive 'Falling Wedge' as noted two weeks ago.


Gold - This Week's Outlook

As for the week ahead, gold's MACD and RSI are looking a little more positive than silver's lower indicators.

To clarify, they don't look positive because they are in positive territory, nor do they look like they are indicating a positive change in price.

They look positive because unlike silver, they've been moving in oversold territory for more than a week and sometimes when price indicators move in the oversold territory for so long, a change in price usually isn't far behind.

So like silver, we may see the price of gold move sideways this week or perhaps it could move up in price, either way, it looks like the upper falling trend-line of the wedge will be tested this week.


Gold Price Chart

Charts provided courtesy of this Guide's Affiliate - TradingView.com





Gold's Price Resistance and
Support Levels


Gold's Resistance Levels

$1310.00

$1300.00


Gold's Support Levels

$1260.00

$1250.00








Thank You for Your Time.

Have a Great Week.

God Bless, Steve





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