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Gold and Silver 2016
Bull Market Wins
End of Year Review and Outlook

Originally Posted on 01/08/2017 @4:34pm

✟

Gold & Silver - Bull Market Wins

Hello,

I hope you had a very Merry Christmas and a Safe and Happy New Year. 

I was not sure how Gold and Silver would end the year. I hypothesized that if the precious metals would end the year on a positive note, it would be a good sign for gold and silver bulls.

But if gold and silver ended the year in the negative, it would've been a definite sign that gold and silver’s bear market was still intact.

Photo provided courtesy of Wikipedia

In the gold and silver charts from the last blog post, I showed the positive technical patterns that had formed, but I also indicated that Gold and Silver might end the year in the negative.

Traders sold at the end of the year to offset their annual Capital Gains taxes, but not enough for gold and silver to end the year in the negative; Gold ended the year up 8.5%, and Silver ended 2016 up 14.8%.

By ending the year on a positive note, Gold and Silver proved that 2016 was a Bull Market for both precious metals assets; now we’ll have to see what 2017 has in store.

This week, I want to share with you how the patterns that have been building in the charts have played out, and what the charts are indicating for the future of Gold, Silver, and the U.S. Dollar.

GOLD

The chart below is from Dec. 19’s blog post, in which I have indicated an expanding falling wedge, gold's 2016 low, and gold’s last rising trend line that begins from its 2015 low of $1045.

(continued...) 

Charts provided courtesy of TradingView.com

In the chart below, I’ve adjusted the Expanding Falling Wedge, which is a positive pattern; gold is expected to break above it in the future.

In addition, around Christmas, I found a Falling Wedge in the chart below; it was an indication that the price of gold was going to correct and start to move up, which is exactly what the price of gold did.

(continued...) 

The question now is:  How high will Gold's price go up?

If you want future prices, I'm not that guy - I'm not a fortune teller.

However, what I can offer you is a perspective.

In the chart above, the price of gold is expected to rise above the falling expanding wedge. As you can see in the Sample chart below, it could be very bullish for gold.

-- Sample --
'Falling Expanding Wedge Chart'
provided courtesy of Forex-Central.net

If gold does move in this way, don't expect it to do it in one shot. In a healthy bull market, every move up should have periods of consolidation or profit-taking.

However, I don't want to come across as too optimistic. One thing about this market that we all need to remember is that the Free Market doesn't govern it; the Federal Reserve does. 

Note: Click the chart above for Forex-Central's definition of the 'Falling Expanding Wedge' also known as a 'Descending Broadening Wedge.'

Gold's Price Resistance &
Support Levels

One very important support/resistance level to be aware of is $1180.  For gold to continue to move upward, it will need to break above this level and stay above it in the weeks to come.

Gold's Resistance Level

$1225.00

$1200.00

$1180.00

Gold's Support Levels

$1120.00

$1100.00

$1060.50

SILVER

The Silver chart below displays the same falling expanding wedge as seen in gold's chart above. 

It too had a falling wedge form (blue line), and like gold, silver reversed direction shortly after Christmas, confirming the falling wedge's positive pattern.

Furthermore, like gold, silver’s expanding falling wedge is a bullish indicator.

Traditionally, silver leads gold in its long-term trade, so if it breaks above its expanding falling wedge, expect gold to do the same.

Charts provided courtesy of TradingView.com

Silver's Price Resistance and
Support Levels

Silver's Resistance Level

$17.10

$16.90

$16.65

Silver's Support Level

$15.60

$15.10

US DOLLAR

Sample Chart

The chart below is from the last blog post.  In it, the U.S. Dollar broke above its rising expanding wedge, which was what it was expected to do, as indicated by the sample chart to the right. 

As you'll see in the next chart below, it wasn’t a good sign for those expecting the dollar to continue to move higher.           (continued…)

Charts provided courtesy of TradingView.com

The Head (H) and Shoulder (S) patterns in the MACD and RSI lower indicators in the chart below give more of an indication of where the U.S. Dollar will continue to move... which is likely down.

U.S. Dollar's Price Resistance and Support Levels

U.S. Dollar's Resistance Level

$103.50

$102.90

U.S. Dollar's Support Level

$101.00

$100.20

$99.75

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Music

In an early October blog post, in the music section, I wrote about hearing Frank Sinatra for the first time at my father’s best friend’s restaurant in Middleburg, Va., called the ‘Coach Stop.’

This weekend, my dad’s friend (Brian) emailed him an article from 1987 that was in the Washington Post. It offers a good description of Middleburg, and it includes an interview with him and his wife (near the end of the article); I thought I would include it for those who might be interested.

Middleburg's Well-Bred Life - Washington Post (1987)

When I was a boy, my father would often tell me this about Brian, saying, "Nothing has been given to him; he's worked hard for his success." He would also share where his friend Brian began his journey in the restaurant industry: at McDonald's.

So, this weekend I heard George Michael's "Kissing a Fool" on YouTube, and it sounded a lot like a song from those days when my Dad would take my family and me to the Coach Stop.

Thank you for your time & God Bless (✟),

Steve

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