Has Gold and Silver Hit Bottom Yet?

 Review and Outlook for the U.S. Dollar, Silver, and Gold



Originally Posted on 8/19/2018 @ 6:45 pm EDT

Last Edited on 8/20/2018 @ 10:20 am EDT

by Steven Warrenfeltz



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Before we get to this Review & Outlook, below are some of the Best Bullion Market-Related News articles that were taken from this guide's home page, over the last few weeks.


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silver and gold




For the last several weeks, I've been reading headline after headline from those who analyze the gold and silver markets that the precious metals have hit bottom.

Then, shortly thereafter, I'd watch the price of gold and silver fall again and hitting a new bottom.

rock bottom

Fact is, nobody, knows when or at what price silver and gold will hit bottom, the precious metals may have just found it in their latest lows, or they may not find it for another month, nobody really knows.

In addition, unlike the poor soul in the photo, it's doubtful we'll know it when gold and silver have hit bottom.

At this time, the best thing that those of us who analyze these markets can do for you is to show you where the support levels are for gold and silver, watch how they move hereafter, and go from there.

Those who state that we've hit a bottom in either gold or silver are simply trying to 'Catch a Falling Knife.'






Review & Outlook
Layout


The order of the asset analysis below:

  • U.S. Dollar
  • Silver
  • Gold

Each asset below has three sections.

  1. In the 'review' section, a copy of the previous outlook for an asset is posted.
  2. Next, you'll find a 'review - continued' section where there is a brief review of how accurate the previous outlook was.
  3. Finally, you will find an 'outlook for the week ahead' for each of the assets below.




All the charts on this blog are Daily Charts unless noted otherwise.






US DOLLAR


In Review

In the last outlook for the U.S. Dollar, the following commentary and outlook was posted:

For the U.S. Dollar's outlook, more of the same is expected, basically an overall sideways move with violent moves to the up and downside.

Over the last week, traders seemed to be at a tug-o-war.

On one side is the Federal Reserve stating that they expect to continue to raise interest rates and on the other side is the President, stating that he's not happy with the interest rate hikes.

Ultimately, the market will decide how the dollar moves, and now it seems indecisive or sideways.

However, sooner or later we should expect to see the 'Rising Expanding Wedge' to be confirmed to the downside.


u.s. dollar price chart

U.S. Dollar - In Review - continued

By comparing the chart above with this week's review chart (below), you can see that the price of the U.S. Dollar moved sideways the week after I wrote the last post, and in doing so it broke the broad Rising Expanding Wedge.

I wrote 'broke' instead of 'confirmed' because had the price confirmed the pattern, it would have fallen, but that didn't happen.

Instead, the price of the dollar rose, and in doing so it rose above the $95.00 Resistance/Support level, making it into a solid support level.

u.s. dollar price chart

U.S. Dollar - Outlook

For the U.S. Dollar's outlook, its price is still trading inside a broad 'Rising Expanding Wedge' pattern.

However, it doesn't seem like it will be confirming it, by falling below it, anytime soon.

The dollar has been on a constant rise, and depending on what economic data comes out in the next several weeks, it looks like the Federal Reserve may raise Interest Rates again.

As long as Interest Rates rise, we will most certainly see the U.S. Dollar rise, and by seeing what the market expects from 'The Fed,' here, a rise in Interest Rates will most likely happen at the next Federal Reserve meeting on Sept 25-26.

So for the weeks to come, I expect to see the U.S. Dollar continue to move inside the broad pattern.

Overall, the dollar looks like we may see a pullback in the immediate future, but it's doubtful that it will be enough to confirm the pattern, and it will most likely bounce back and move higher, in the long run.


u.s. dollar price chart

Charts provided courtesy of this Guide's Affiliate - TradingView.com




U.S. Dollar's Price Resistance and Support Levels


U.S. Dollar's Resistance Levels

$96.00


U.S. Dollar's Support Levels

$95.00

$93.00





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SILVER

In Review

Four weeks ago, the outlook below was written for silver. 


In Silver's outlook chart below, I've adjusted the bottom trend-line of the steep 'Falling Wedge.'

I kept the pattern in the chart because as long as it can be drawn, it is relevant.

However, right now, silver continually seems to be finding new lows and although some kind of bounce is expected at its price, it is unknown whether or not it will have legs.  Time will tell.


silver price chart

Silver - In Review - continued


In silver's review chart below, you can see that the price of silver broke the 'Falling Wedge,' but it didn't confirm it. 

Had it confirmed that positive 'Falling Wedge' pattern, the price would have moved up, but instead, it moved sideways for a little while, then it fell in price again.


Silver Price Chart

Silver - Outlook


Like I mentioned in the introduction,

"At this time, the best thing that those of us who analyze these markets can do for you is to show you where the support levels are for gold and silver, watch how they move hereafter, and go from there."

Unfortunately, for Silver, it has fallen through most of its previous strong lows.

Currently, the strongest support level that still stands for silver dates back to December 14, 2015, when silver hit a low of $13.60.

For silver's outlook, there are no technical patterns to be found when the price is falling, the best thing to do is stand back and wait for it to stop.

There are other strong support levels, for silver, under the $13.60 price level, but for now, we'll simply have to wait and see if the $13.60 support level holds.


silver price chart

Charts provided courtesy of this Guide's Affiliate - TradingView.com





Silver's Price Resistance &
Support Levels


Silver's Resistance Levels

$15.60

$15.15


Silver's Support Levels

$13.60






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GOLD

In Review

The following chart and commentary was posted four weeks ago, in  gold's last outlook.

In gold's outlook chart below, you can see what I mentioned in the review above, that gold now has two positive patterns in its price chart.

Obviously, gold is expected to break above the narrow 'Falling Wedge' before it would break the positive 'Falling Expanding Wedge.'

For the gold's outlook, it is expected to break the 'Falling Wedge' sometime in the next week or so.

But, even if gold breaks the 'Falling Wedge,' by the looks of things, the precious metal will continue to fall in search of a bottom.


Gold Price Chart

Gold - In Review - continued

As you can see in the Gold review chart below, both of the positive technical patterns in Gold's price chart failed their expected outcomes.

The 'Falling Wedge' broke, but its pattern expectations of moving higher were not confirmed, plus the broad 'Falling Expanding Wedge' pattern was denied when the price of gold fell below the bottom trend-line of the positive wedge.

The $1,195 price level, was a support level, but now that the price of gold fell through it, it has become a resistance level for gold.


Gold Price Chart

Gold - Outlook

For gold's outlook, more downside is expected for the precious metal, we can expect some bounces up, but its overall expectation is for it to move lower at this time.

In the outlook chart below, I've indicated two strong support price levels that may stop gold's fall in price.

Those price levels are the $1,120 price level and the $1,045 price level, hopefully one of those price levels will hold, time will tell.

The important thing to remember about gold and silver is that they almost always move opposite of the U.S. Dollar, and if we continue to see Interest Rate hikes we should also continue to see the dollar move higher, and gold and silver move lower.

But, as we saw in 2008, the constant rise of interest rates will put more strains on the economy, especially on those who have debt, and sooner or later that strain on the market will break, which will cause all markets to fall.

In addition, even though gold and silver will most likely fall with the other markets when this happens, they will also be the first to recover after traders flock to them because of their 'enduring' safe haven status.

This is just something to remember while gold (and silver) fall in price, searching for a bottom.


Gold Price Chart

Charts provided courtesy of this Guide's Affiliate - TradingView.com





Gold's Price Resistance and
Support Levels


Gold's Resistance Levels

$1225.00

$1195.00


Gold's Support Levels

$1120.00

$1045.00







Thank You for Your Time.

Have a Great Week and God Bless,

Steve



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