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'Review & Outlook'
for the U.S. Dollar, Silver, and Gold



Originally Posted on 12/25/2018 @  8:15 pm EST

Last Edited & Updated on 12/26/2018 @  9:47 am EST

by Steven Warrenfeltz



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silver and gold




To begin this 'Review and Outlook,' I hope you and your family had a Merry Christmas and have a Safe and Happy New Year!

I believe in accountability, which is why in every 'Review and Outlook,' there is an honest assessment of the last outlook in the 'review - continued' section.

This time, I wanted to review some of what was written in the intro of my last blog post titled: Silver and Gold's Price Movement Depends on 'The Fed.'

In the last sentences of the intro, I was half right and half wrong; below is what was written:


What the market doesn't like is that through interest rate hikes, the Federal Reserve is trying to tame it.

I will be surprised if they don't tame the market too much before the bottom falls out of it, but time will be the judge of that.

My prediction is that 'The Fed' will raise interest rates another quarter of a percent on December 19th, and ultimately Gold and Silver will likely be affected negatively from it.

Last week,  'The Fed' did raise interest rates, by another quarter of a percent, however, gold and silver were not affected negatively from it, as you will see in the charts below.

Instead, gold and silver rose in price, which has been mostly due to all the uncertainty in the markets, so, I was wrong in my prediction of gold and silver's price movements, after the rate hike.

However, when viewing the charts using Technically analysis, they indicate that gold and silver are trading in negative patterns and should see some kind of pullback, sometime in the near future.

This is unless fundamentals take over and market uncertainty increases.

Fundamentals always trump Technical Analysis, and Uncertainty is a Precious Metal's best friend.







Review & Outlook
Layout


The order of the asset analysis below:

  • U.S. Dollar
  • Silver
  • Gold

Each asset below has three sections.

  1. In the 'review' section, a copy of the previous outlook for an asset is posted.
  2. Next, you'll find a 'review - continued' section where there is a brief review of how accurate the previous outlook was.
  3. Finally, you will find an 'outlook for the week ahead' for each of the assets below.




All the charts on this blog are Daily Charts unless noted otherwise.






US DOLLAR


In Review

In each of the 'In Review' sections of this blog, you'll find analyzes the last blog post's outlook.

Below is the analysis and chart from this guide's last blog's outlook for the U.S. Dollar. 

The dollar's been moving mostly sideways for the last few weeks, without much of a direction as to which way it will move. 

Traders can't seem to make up their mind on what they want to do until after the Federal Reserve meeting.

The U.S. Dollar has formed a broad 'Falling Expanding Wedge' which it is expected to trade inside until after the Federal Reserve has announced what it will do in regards to Interest Rates on December, 19th.

The pattern is a positive pattern, so the dollar is expected to rise above it sometime in the near future, most likely, the pattern will either be confirmed or denied after the FOMC meeting.


u.s. dollar price chart

U.S. Dollar - In Review - continued

In the Review chart below, you can see that the dollar didn't wait for the Fed's interest rate hike to move up, it popped up through the 'Falling Expanding Wedge' two days after the chart above was posted.

But, because of all the uncertainty in the markets, the dollar has failed to stay above the pattern.


u.s. dollar price chart

U.S. Dollar - Outlook

In the U.S. Dollar's outlook chart, below, a positive 'Falling Wedge' pattern has formed.

The dollar looks to have some room to trade in the positive pattern  before it moves up to break and confirm the pattern, it's unknown as to whether that will happen before or after New Year's Day, but it should happen soon.


u.s. dollar price chart

Charts provided courtesy of this Guide's Affiliate - TradingView.com





U.S. Dollar's Price Resistance and Support Levels


U.S. Dollar's Resistance Levels

$98.00

$97.00


U.S. Dollar's Support Levels

$96.00

$95.00







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SILVER

In Review

In the last blog post: Silver and Gold's Price Movement Depends on 'The Fed' the outlook commentary and chart below was posted for silver. 


In Silver Outlook chart below, it has formed a 'Falling Wedge' pattern.

The pattern is a positive pattern, so it is expected to break it to the upside, this will likely happen before the Federal Reserve meeting on December 19th.

In all honesty, silver looks like it could break it in the next day or two, which it could, but whenever it breaks it and confirms the pattern, the overall expectation of silver at this time is for it to continue to test the $13.90 support level (shown) and the $13.60 support level (not shown).


Silver Price Chart

Silver - Review - continued

In the silver 'Review' chart below, you can see that silver confirmed the positive 'Falling Wedge' pattern, shortly after, the 'Outlook' chart, above, from the last blog post, was posted.

However, silver did not fall in price as I predicted, instead it has mostly moved sideways over the last few weeks.  

Silver's lack of downward movement, after the Fed's interest rate hike, which has been mostly due to the uncertainty in the markets as investors and speculators stash some of their money in safe havens in the recent volatile market.


silver price chart

Silver - Outlook


In silver's 'Outlook' chart below, the precious metal has formed a 'Rising Wedge' pattern.

The pattern is a negative pattern, so it's expected to break and confirm it, to the downside, sometime in the near future.

However, from the way silver and gold have been moving lately, silver could easily climb up inside the pattern before it confirms it.

Time will tell.


Silver Price Chart

Charts provided courtesy of this Guide's Affiliate - TradingView.com





Silver's Price Resistance &
Support Levels


Silver's Resistance Levels

$15.60

$15.00


Silver's Support Levels

$14.20

$13.90







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GOLD

In Review

The following chart and commentary was posted in gold's last .

In Gold's 'Outlook' chart below, a negative 'Rising Expanding Wedge' has formed. 

How long gold trades inside the negative pattern is unknown, most likely up until the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 19th, before confirms the pattern to the downside.


Gold Price Chart

Gold - Review - continued


This week, Gold's 'Review and Outlook' chart are in one chart (below) because gold hasn't broken the 'Rising Expanding Wedge' in the chart (above) instead, gold has continued to climb up inside the pattern, due to all the unsettled markets.


Gold - Outlook

For Gold's outlook chart below, the precious metal has managed to climb up to its 'Long-Term Resistance Trend-line at the $1270 price level.

The Long-Term Resistance Trend-line used to be a major support level for gold until it broke it, last July, however, now this Trend-line is a major resistance level for gold, and it should be hard for it to break it.

If it does break through the Trend-line it will be a good sign for gold but, the Expanding Rising Wedge is still intact, and looming over gold's price.

So, as long as the negative Rising Expanding Wedge pattern is relevant, and by assessing the chart (below) using Technical Analysis, the price of gold is expected to confirm it by falling below the wedge's lower trend-line, sometime in the near future.


Gold Price Chart

Charts provided courtesy of this Guide's Affiliate - TradingView.com





Gold's Price Resistance and
Support Levels


Gold's Resistance Levels


$1310.00

$1270.00


Gold's Support Levels


$1195.00

$1120.00

$1045.00







Thank You for Your Time.

Take Care & God Bless,

Steve




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