Gold and Silver
are
'Forked'

in terms of Technical Analysis

 Review and Outlook for the U.S. Dollar, Silver, and Gold



Originally Posted on 9/24/2018 @ 4:43 pm EDT

Last Edited on 9/25/2018 @ 11:09 am EDT

by Steven Warrenfeltz



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Before we get to this Review & Outlook, below are some of the Best Bullion Market-Related News articles that were taken from this guide's home page, over the last several weeks.


hard news
We Never Learned From Lehman - Bloomberg


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Billionaire Ray Dalio: We are in the 7th inning of the current economic cycle - CNBC


‘Unprecedented’ Government Spending Spree Picks Up Speed - NextGov


Audio: Louise Yamada Warns Downtrend in Commodities May Continue - Financial Sense


Stronger US economy may warrant "restrictive" rates: Fed's Rosengren - Fox Business


Interactive: $250 Trillion in Debt: the World’s Post-Lehman Legacy - Bloomberg


Perth Mint unveils 2019 Australian Bullion Coin Program for Investors - The Perth Mint


The Fed thinks it’s safe to keep hiking rates — it’s wrong, market researcher James Bianco says - CNBC


PDF: Central Banks Enrich a Select Few at the Expense of Many - Degussa


Strong 4th Quarter Ahead? - Financial Sense


Eureka! Mother Lode Of Gold Found In Australian Mine - NPR


Chinese Government Encourages Share Buybacks As Bear Market Deepens - Financial Sense


Video: Jim Rogers: “Before This Is Over, Gold Might Turn Into A Bubble” - Kitco


'Adverse Trends' Hit India Gold Buying - Bullion Vault


The Red Heifer of Market Doom - Energy & Capital


Video: Danielle DiMartino Booth - Gold is the Ultimate Hiding Place - USA Watchdog


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Gold Nanoparticle Cancer Research Report #10 - Free Bullion Investment Guide


Nasal spray and ultrasound team up for direct-to-brain drug delivery - New Atlas






silver and gold




Gold and Silver are 'Forked,' in terms of Technical Analysis, means that they're trading inside an Andrew's Pitchfork.

The pattern is called an 'Andrew's Pitchfork' because an investor named Alan H. Andrews developed the charting pattern, but, in practical terms, the pitchfork is a glorified trading channel.

You'll see what I'm talking about when you see the gold and silver charts below.






Review & Outlook
Layout


The order of the asset analysis below:

  • U.S. Dollar
  • Silver
  • Gold

Each asset below has three sections.

  1. In the 'review' section, a copy of the previous outlook for an asset is posted.
  2. Next, you'll find a 'review - continued' section where there is a brief review of how accurate the previous outlook was.
  3. Finally, you will find an 'outlook for the week ahead' for each of the assets below.




All the charts on this blog are Daily Charts unless noted otherwise.






US DOLLAR


In Review

In the last outlook for the U.S. Dollar, the following commentary and outlook was posted:

For the U.S. Dollar's outlook, its price is still trading inside a broad 'Rising Expanding Wedge' pattern.

However, it doesn't seem like it will be confirming it, by falling below it, anytime soon.

The dollar has been on a constant rise, and depending on what economic data comes out in the next several weeks, it looks like the Federal Reserve may raise Interest Rates again.

As long as Interest Rates rise, we will most certainly see the U.S. Dollar rise, and by seeing what the market expects from 'The Fed,' here, a rise in Interest Rates will most likely happen at the next Federal Reserve meeting on Sept 25-26.

So for the weeks to come, I expect to see the U.S. Dollar continue to move inside the broad pattern.

Overall, the dollar looks like we may see a pullback in the immediate future, but it's doubtful that it will be enough to confirm the pattern, and it will most likely bounce back and move higher, in the long run.


u.s. dollar price chart

U.S. Dollar - In Review - continued

By comparing the commentary and chart above with the chart below you can see that we did "see a pullback in the immediate future."

However, we did not see the dollar "bounce back and move higher," instead it moved lower confirming the negative 'Rising Expanding Wedge' pattern.


u.s. dollar price chart

U.S. Dollar - Outlook

In the U.S. Dollar's outlook chart below, a positive 'Falling Wedge' pattern has formed.

As seen here, the market is overwhelmingly expecting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates another quarter of a percent (.25%) at its next meeting, later this week on Sept 25-26.

So, if the Federal Reserve raises rates, as it is expected to do, the positive 'Falling Wedge' pattern should be confirmed sometime in the near future.


u.s. dollar price chart

Charts provided courtesy of this Guide's Affiliate - TradingView.com




U.S. Dollar's Price Resistance and Support Levels


U.S. Dollar's Resistance Levels

$96.00


U.S. Dollar's Support Levels

$94.00

$93.00





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SILVER

In Review

Four weeks ago, the outlook below was posted for silver. 


Like I mentioned in the introduction,

"At this time, the best thing that those of us who analyze these markets can do for you is to show you where the support levels are for gold and silver, watch how they move hereafter, and go from there."

Unfortunately, for Silver, it has fallen through most of its previous strong lows.

Currently, the strongest support level that still stands for silver dates back to December 14, 2015, when silver hit a low of $13.60.

For silver's outlook, there are no technical patterns to be found when the price is falling, the best thing to do is stand back and wait for it to stop.

There are other strong support levels, for silver, under the $13.60 price level, but for now, we'll simply have to wait and see if the $13.60 support level holds.


silver price chart

Silver - Review & Outlook


As you can see in the 1st Outlook chart below, silver has continued to fall in price, however, it also found a consolidation price level around the $14.20.

Below, is the first view of the 'Andrew's Pitchfork,' the 2nd Outlook chart (below) offers more information about this technical trading pattern.


Silver Price Chart

Silver - Outlook


In the 2nd silver outlook chart, below, you can get a better view of the Andrew's Pitchfork.

Even though there are some technical factors that are involved in finding them, as mentioned in the intro in 'practical terms' an Andrew's Pitchfork is simply a glorified channel.

The green area of the pitchfork is called the median, the lower blue shaded trend-line is support and the upper blue shaded trend-line is resistance.

Furthermore, much like a channel, if the price of silver breaks below the support level, it will be a very bad sign for silver's future price, however, if/when it breaks above the upper trend-line, it will be the first sign that it has found a bottom. 

See a full explanation of a Andrew's Pitchfork here.

For silver's outlook, the market is waiting to see what the Federal Reserve will do by the end of the week, I, like those in the market expect 'the Fed' to raise rates again and if that happens we should see silver test the nearly three-year-old support level of $13.60. (see chart above)


silver price chart

Charts provided courtesy of this Guide's Affiliate - TradingView.com





Silver's Price Resistance &
Support Levels


Silver's Resistance Levels

$15.60

$15.15


Silver's Support Levels

$13.60






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GOLD

In Review

The following chart and commentary was posted four weeks ago, in  gold's last outlook.

For gold's outlook, more downside is expected for the precious metal, we can expect some bounces up, but its overall expectation is for it to move lower at this time.

In the outlook chart below, I've indicated two strong support price levels that may stop gold's fall in price.

Those price levels are the $1,120 price level and the $1,045 price level, hopefully one of those price levels will hold, time will tell.

The important thing to remember about gold and silver is that they almost always move opposite of the U.S. Dollar, and if we continue to see Interest Rate hikes we should also continue to see the dollar move higher, and gold and silver move lower.

But, as we saw in 2008, the constant rise of interest rates will put more strains on the economy, especially on those who have debt, and sooner or later that strain on the market will break, which will cause all markets to fall.

In addition, even though gold and silver will most likely fall with the other markets when this happens, they will also be the first to recover after traders flock to them because of their 'enduring' safe haven status.

This is just something to remember while gold (and silver) fall in price, searching for a bottom.


Gold Price Chart

Gold - Review & Outlook

Unlike silver, gold did fall in price, but it bounced back up and is now hovering around the $1,195 resistance / support level.

Please continue to scroll down to get a better view of the pitchfork in gold's price chart.


Gold Price Chart

Gold - Outlook

In gold's outlook chart below, you can get a better view of how gold's price has consolidated at the $1,195 resistance/support price level.

In addition, just like silver, if the price of gold falls below the bottom blue shaded trend-line, it will be a very bad sign for gold's future price.

However, if/when it breaks above the upper blue shaded trend-line, then that will be the first sign that it is forming a bottom.

For now, the market is expecting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (.25%), and if it does so, the price of gold is expected to continue to trade inside the Andrew's Pitchfork and move lower.


Gold Price Chart

Charts provided courtesy of this Guide's Affiliate - TradingView.com





Gold's Price Resistance and
Support Levels


Gold's Resistance Levels

$1225.00

$1195.00


Gold's Support Levels


$1195.00

$1120.00

$1045.00







Thank You for Your Time.

Take Care & God Bless,

Steve



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