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Waiting on Time
(plus)
Precious Metals
Review and Outlook
01/09 thru 01/20/2017

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Originally Posted on 01/16/2017 @12:51am

Waiting on Time

Hello, I hope you had a great week.

Not much has happened this week in the news concerning the markets; it seems everyone is trying to guess what's going to happen after January 20, 2017 – President-Elect Donald Trump’s Inauguration day.  

The financial realm is showing its political biases with news reports about what 'may or may not' happen after Trump is inaugurated; I have a wait-and-see approach.  

Some of the things that the President-Elect has said about the economy will likely provide a lot of growth; some of the other things he's said, I have my doubts, but he isn’t President yet, so all we can do is wait.

For the markets and the precious metals, it is up to the Federal Reserve, which has a meeting on January 26-27th. It appears the media and the markets are assuming that there will be another rate hike at this meeting.

It'll be a surprise to me if they do, but this year will be a hard one to predict concerning the Federal Reserve and interest rates; this is mostly because the Fed, like the financial media, is paying very close attention to what Trump will do.

But, unlike the media, I think it's foolish to predict what the Federal Reserve 'could' do in the future; there are way too many variables, so we’ll just have to wait and see what happens. 

One thing is for certain about the Federal Reserve:  They are almost always 'behind the curve.'

Precious Metals Review & Outlook

A quick note about this week’s Review & Outlook.

In this week’s charts, Platinum and Palladium have been added.

Periodically, these metals will be added to these weekly blog posts when the metals garner attention, like this past week. See the platinum and palladium sections below to learn more.

This week’s sequence of charts & analysis is as follows: Gold, Silver, U.S. Dollar, Platinum & Palladium.

GOLD

Last week, gold’s price continued to rise after consolidating at $1180, then moved up to the next resistance level at $1200.

In addition, gold’s MACD and RSI are signaling that a pause in the upward movement is inevitable.

Sample Chart
'Falling Expanding Wedge'
provided courtesy of Forex-Central.net

The MACD’s ‘signal’ lines are widening, and its bar chart is showing a loss of momentum; this is not a good sign. Plus, Gold’s RSI (relative strength indicator) is starting to crest. (chart below)

It's difficult to predict what gold will do this week due to the volatility in the market. We can expect some consolidation around the $1,200 level. After that, we will have to wait and see which direction gold takes. However, there is a bullish expanding falling wedge pattern on the charts that could influence gold's price.

Note: Click the Sample Chart above for Forex-Central's definition of the Falling Expanding Wedge.

Charts provided courtesy of TradingView.com

Gold's Price Resistance &
Support Levels

Gold's Resistance Level

$1250.00

$1225.00

$1200.00

Gold's Support Levels

$1180.00

$1120.00

$1100.00

SILVER

Silver’s price chart resembles that of gold; it too is losing momentum to rise; consolidation appears to be its next phase.

This week could be silver’s time to lead gold in its price chart movement; plus, like gold, it too has a bullish expanding falling wedge looming over it, which is a huge positive pattern that reveals that even if gold and silver consolidate this week, the general direction of their prices is up.

Charts provided courtesy of TradingView.com

Silver's Price Resistance and
Support Levels

Silver's Resistance Level

$17.10

$16.90

Silver's Support Level

$16.50

$15.85

$15.60

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US DOLLAR

Before the end of 2016, on Dec. 19th, this blog post indicated a head-and-shoulders pattern was forming in the U.S. Dollar price chart's MACD and RSI (lower indicators).

In the "U.S. Dollar" section of last week's blog post here, the negative head (H) and shoulders (S) patterns in the MACD & RSI were confirmed, and are continuing to play out.    

Recently, a falling wedge pattern has developed in the U.S. dollar chart. This suggests that we should expect some consolidation around the $101 level. However, both the MACD and RSI indicators for the dollar are still declining, which indicates that it may drop below $101 before Inaugural Day.                                                                              (continued…)

Charts provided courtesy of TradingView.com

'Rising Expanding Wedge Chart'
provided courtesy of Forex-Central.net

Furthermore, the expanding rising wedge in the U.S. dollar chart continues to be a negative sign for the dollar, so more down movement is expected.

Note: Click the chart above for Forex-Central's definition of the Rising Expanding Wedge or 'Ascending Broadening Wedge.'

U.S. Dollar's Price Resistance and Support Levels

U.S. Dollar's Resistance Level

$103.50

$102.90

U.S. Dollar's Support Level

$101.00

$100.20

$99.75

BGASC - Customer Reviews - 4.8 stars

Platinum

For the past several weeks, I've been monitoring the price of Platinum, but this weekend was the first time I examined the chart.

Unfortunately, the chart doesn't look promising, and there's not much more to say about it.  Additionally, the news regarding Fiat Chrysler and the United States' EPA could have very negative impacts on Platinum's price.

On Jan 13th this story broke:  E.P.A. Accuses Fiat Chrysler of Secretly Violating Emissions Standards

Platinum is the primary element in 'Diesel' Catalytic Converters that removes harmful gases from exhaust.

If the allegations are true, it is expected to hurt the sales of diesel vehicles, which will hurt the demand for platinum and its price.

The same thing happened in September of 2015 when Volkswagen admitted to rigging the software on their vehicles to pass emissions tests. 

You can see what happened to the price of platinum (during this time) in the 'Platinum Section' on this guide's 3rd Quarter of 2015 report: here.

As for Platinum's chart, its MACD and RSI look to be in oversold territory and with the recent news, it looks like a change in direction isn't too far away.

Charts provided courtesy of TradingView.com

Palladium

In the Palladium price chart, a negative head (H) and shoulders (S) pattern looks like it is taking shape, the question mark is on the chart because it hasn't fully formed yet.  When a head-and-shoulders pattern forms in a price chart, the price is expected to fall below the neckline shown on the chart.

However, the news story above about Platinum could completely change the pattern (below).  (news story: E.P.A. Accuses Fiat Chrysler of Secretly Violating Emissions Standards)

Palladium is the primary metal used in catalytic converters for gasoline engines, and this latest revelation about Fiat/Chrysler could help increase the sales of gasoline cars and, in turn Palladium.

It remains to be seen whether Palladium will reverse the negative head-and-shoulders pattern that has developed in its price chart, but it seems like now is a good time to start paying closer attention to Palladium.

Charts provided courtesy of TradingView.com

Music

'Into The Mystic' by Van Morrison

Thank you for your time & God Bless (✟),

Steve

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